The global economic climate is at its brightest since 2007, but there may be trouble ahead, according to the latest quarterly World Economic Survey by USCIB affiliate the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and the Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research.
Topping last quarter’s four-year high, the ICC/Ifo world climate indicator reached 107.7 points in April, far above its 1995-2010 average of 96.9. The figure, based on a survey of over 1,000 economists in 120 countries, combines respondents’ increasingly positive appraisals of their countries’ economic situation with their outlook for the next six months, which has dipped slightly while remaining confident.
Despite its overall optimism, the report highlights marked regional variations, and factors that could upset further global economic recovery in the next six months. Public budget deficits were top on the experts’ list of urgent problems, ahead of high inflation and unemployment.
ICC Secretary General Jean-Guy Carrier said: “The ICC/Ifo findings are an encouraging sign that the global economy is still recovering. But they also show growing anxiety about public deficits that have built up since the financial crisis. And if governments struggling to reduce their debts resort to increasing protectionism – there’s a real danger that further global economic recovery could stall. Governments must work together and encourage a multilateral trading system that can allow the global economy to continue regaining strength.”
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